Predictable
"Israeli Soldiers Accused of Using Polymarket to Bet on Strikes," reports the Wall Street Journal:
Last year, a user who went by the name ricosuave666 correctly predicted the timeline around the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. The bets drew attention from other traders who suspected the account holder had access to nonpublic information.
The account in question raked in more than $150,000 in winnings before going dormant for six months. It resumed trading last month, betting on when Israel would strike Iran, Polymarket data shows.
In a sane world, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi would be outlawed. I can only hope we eventually get to that point sooner rather than later, or we risk an explosion of corruption.